Lately, with so many conversations circling around AI and how fast it’s reshaping work, I’ve found myself thinking a lot about the future of HR talent. Specifically: who’s coming next, and where will they come from?
For years, HR grew capability from the ground up. People started in HR admin or coordination roles, learned the basics, built commercial judgement, and eventually stepped into Advisor or Business Partner positions. It was a reliable pathway- predictable, practical and proven.
But that foundation is shifting. And the ripple effects are starting to show.
The Shrinking HR Talent Funnel
A few quiet but significant changes have reduced the number of people entering HR at the junior level:
- More basic HR tasks being outsourced to global service centres
- HR structures becoming increasingly siloed
- Technology and AI automating foundational work
- Cost pressures removing junior roles altogether
All of this means fewer people entering HR, fewer gaining hands‑on experience, and fewer progressing into mid‑level roles.
If you tried hiring an HR Advisor in 2023, you’ll remember how tough it was. Limited candidates, inflated salaries, and capability gaps everywhere. The slower recruitment market of the last couple of years has hidden the issue a bit, but anyone who lived through the GFC knows the pattern, the economy grows, the recruitment market tightens again, demand rises, and suddenly the capability gap becomes very real.
When that happens, organisations will be scrambling for Advisors and Business Partners because the development pathway simply isn’t producing enough people.
The Capability Challenge
If fewer people come through traditional HR pathways, organisations will need to rethink how they grow capability or start looking outside HR for talent.
In my 25+ years in HR recruitment, I’ve seen some cross‑functional movement, but not nearly enough to meet future demand. And it raises a big question: how do we make sure the right people are stepping into roles that manage a company’s greatest asset, its people?
Historically, HR capability has been mainly assessed through HR‑specific examples: ER cases, recruitment cycles, policy interpretation, project delivery. When everyone has similar experience, it’s so much easier to compare.
But if future HR hires come from non‑linear backgrounds, their examples won’t be HR‑based. Traditional interviews won’t fit so neatly. And while many organisations say they hire for transferable skills, they often still default to familiar checkboxes:
- Industry experience
- Job titles
- CVs that look like the person who just left
- Company size
- Local market exposure
Non‑linear HR careers bring fresh thinking and adaptability, but they’re still rare. They usually happen only when someone has already proven themselves internally and a leader is willing to take a chance.
Hiring non‑linear talent externally takes more effort, more robust assessment, and more organisational courage. It’s harder. It feels riskier. And many leaders won’t go down that path.
But if junior HR roles keep disappearing, non‑linear careers won’t just be a nice idea, they’ll be essential.
So what are some of the options?
- Redesign HR team structures to grow capability on purpose
Think rotational programs, hybrid roles, or capability‑building pods that give people exposure to ER, recruitment, HR systems and processes, and HR generalist and project work.
- Build competency frameworks that actually measure capability
Focus on how someone thinks, learns, and solves problems not whether their CV follows the traditional HR pathway.
- Encourage cross‑functional movement into HR
Bring in talent from other areas within the business. Celebrate non‑linear careers instead of treating them as exceptions.
- Modernise interview and assessment processes
The Gap Is Predictable, the Response Is Optional
We can see the capability gap coming. The question is whether we tackle it now or wait until it becomes urgent.
How do we future‑proof not just our organisations, but the HR profession itself?
Is this something you’re already thinking about in your organisation? What are you doing?
Would love to hear your thoughts.